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Shoddy statistics will produce US bad policy

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Wednesday, 24 September 2025

Written by John Hood

President Donald Trump has removed the head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and appointed an economist from the Heritage Foundation to replace her. A legal exercise of the president’s powers? Absolutely. But the replacement, E.J. Antoni, must be confirmed by the U.S. Senate.
I hope North Carolina’s Thom Tillis and Ted Budd give the matter careful consideration.
The stakes are high. BLS produces crucial data on employment, wages, prices, and productivity. To do so, it relies on monthly surveys of households and of business establishments, as well as other surveys and administrative data from government programs. Other agencies, universities, and private firms also conduct surveys and produce statistics. But few offer the breadth and depth of coverage that BLS does.
Many individuals and institutions rely on the data. Here in North Carolina, for example, fiscal analysts for the state legislature, governor’s office, and local governments use BLS statistics to project public revenues and expenditures. Companies use them to make investment decisions.
The two fields in which I’ve spent most of my career, journalism and policy analysis, also rely heavily on BLS reports. We report on monthly releases of unemployment rates, job counts, and price changes.
We sweep months or years of BLS data into spreadsheets to calculate longer-term trends. Scholars download decades of BLS data to build econometric models and attempt to evaluate changes in public policy.
Even when other entities produce valuable information, they often test its validity by comparing their data to what the BLS reports. For example, recent research by UNC-Chapel Hill’s Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise and other partners shows that business-formation data collected by the North Carolina Secretary of State represent a reasonably accurate predictor of changes in employment and economic activity.
Why is that important? Because the secretary’s business-formation metric is readily available by county. Employment data (from BLS) and GDP data (from the Bureau of Economic Analysis) have much longer lag times, especially at the county level. This might well represent a handy new tool for assessing economic growth in North Carolina. It is, however, no substitute for monthly BLS reports (and quarterly BEA reports).
To put it bluntly, if large swaths of policymakers, executives, investors, and the general public come to distrust what comes out of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, that will make it harder to conduct prudent business or have meaningful conversations about economic policy.
I don’t assume that Antoni would manipulate BLS processes in an attempt to concoct a pro-administration spin. But the political circumstances that led to his nomination are worrying. When firing the previous administrator, Trump noted that she had been appointed by Joe Biden and claimed she had “rigged” job numbers to make him and Republicans “look bad.”
Declining response rates to BLS surveys have made the agency’s job more difficult. But as George Mason University economist Vincent Geloso found in a careful analysis of two decades of BLS data, there is no convincing evidence for the bias the president alleged.
Sometimes, BLS has revised job numbers down under Republican administrations. Sometimes it’s done so under Democratic ones.
“The claims that the BLS is systematically partisan and incompetent collapse under scrutiny,” he concluded.
That’s not to say no improvements are possible. Indeed, the new head of BLS ought to consider University of Chicago economist Tomas Philipson’s idea of giving respondents cash incentives to fill out BLS surveys regularly and accurately.
“After all, such incentives are used by the IRS to reduce measurement errors for reporting taxable incomes,” Philipson wrote in National Review. “Paying respondents for their contribution to improve our understanding of the economy, therefore, generates a mutually beneficial exchange, just as wages do for any regular work.”
Perhaps this is the kind of reform that Antoni and the Trump administration have in mind. If so, great.
If they modify the methodology or frequency of BLS reports without clear and convincing explanations, however, they’ll get a lot of blowback — and deserve it.

Editor’s Note: John Hood is a John Locke Foundation board member. His books Mountain Folk, Forest Folk, and Water Folk combine epic fantasy with American history (FolkloreCycle.com).

(Photo: The Postal Square Building in Washington D.C. holds the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Photo courtesy of Wikipedia)

Visit Florida, the Measles State

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Tuesday, 16 September 2025

Written by Pitt Dickey

Just when you thought Alligator Alcatraz was the epitome of Floridaness, along comes their very special cowboy/cowgirl boot-wearing governor, Ron DeSantis, who declares that all vaccine mandates are off.
Don’t feel like getting your kid vaccinated because some guy on a radio told you it was slavery? Have you done your own research on the interwebs and now know more than the medical profession? Move to Florida, where freedom is now spelled FREEDUMB.
Viruses need love, too. No longer will you have to attack such child-friendly viruses as measles, whooping cough, or COVID. Let the viruses run free. Survival of the fittest is the rule of the day in the Sunshine State. The Florida Surgeon General, the esteemed Dr. Joseph Ladapo announced the ban of mandatory viruses, pronouncing: “Who am I to tell you what your child should put in their body?
Every last one (vaccine mandate) is wrong and drips with disdain and slavery.”
Want your child to be a charter member of the Florida Lesions of Honor? Want to play connect the measles pustules on his feverish little body wracked with pain to see if Robert Kennedy Jr is sending you a secret communication on your child’s pockmarked tummy?
Keep him unvaxxed. Your little darling should be liberated to enjoy measles without the interference of the Nanny State. Although the measles pustules on their body may drip with pus, result in cosmic levels of itching, hearing loss, pneumonia, encephalitis (brain swelling- but who needs a brain in Florida?), blindness, and possible death, at least they will know they were free to contract the disease without the slavery of modern science and the Nanny State telling them to get the vax. They will be proud to be Floridian, where at least they know they are free, or crippled, or dead.
Like the UNC fight song, the little darlings will be Florida born, Florida bred, and when they die, they will be Florida dead. They will be free to infect their classmates who have compromised immune systems.
They will be free to spread measles to pregnant women, including their teachers, which increases a woman’s chance of miscarriage, premature birth, and low birth weight infants. There will be no more vax mandates dripping with disdain and slavery.
Don’t be a nervous Nellie, even if the lack of vax leads to increased misery, pain, and avoidable death, there is a brighter side. An unknown commentator on the Interwebs pointed out: “When I was a kid, I attended a funeral for a baby. There was a tiny casket and everything. But afterwards, there were sandwiches and cookies and stuff. So, I guess it won’t be all bad, Florida.”
That will own the Libs. Medical science is for sissies. Political science trumps medical science every time. Stupid doctors don’t know nuthin’. Vaxxes are a badge of slavery. A pox on their vax.
Making measles great again is just the nose of the camel sticking through the oxygen tent. Once measles is established, what other vax banished diseases will be heading our way?
Right now, Mr. Smallpox and Miss Polio are polishing up their tandem bike to ride down I-95 to the Promised Land of Antivax Happiness in Florida. The best part is, unlike Vegas, what happens in Florida doesn’t stay in Florida. Lots of tourists go to Florida (not Canadians anymore, but that is another story), they will be able to get infected with measles and bring disease cooties back on the plane to their hometowns to spread the wealth of freedom contagion to all their friends and neighbors.
Being personally calendar-enhanced, I am old enough to remember the delightfully scary times of polio back in the 1950s. To keep polio from spreading, the Nanny State closed schools, swimming pools, movie theaters, and other venues where people gathered in large numbers. I can recall the yellow quarantine signs on the doors of houses where polio had entered.
Kids went from playing sandlot baseball to living in Iron Lungs to keep them alive. Lucky polio victims wore clunky metal braces on their legs to hobble around. The unlucky ones went to the cemetery.
Making measles great again will open the door to the Good Old Days before vaccines eradicated significantly bad cooties. Epidemiologists are just trying to enslave you.
As Dirty Harry once asked: “Are you feeling lucky?” Maybe your kid will be lucky and the bad viruses won’t visit your home. Politics, podcasts, and luck beat medical science. We don’t need no stinkin’ vax. Live free or die.
We have Robert Kennedy Jr. and his pet laboratory state of Florida to own the Libs.

Publisher's Pen: Reflections from prayer walk honoring Charlie Kirk

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Wednesday, 24 September 2025

Written by Bill Bowman

On a beautiful Sunday afternoon in Downtown Fayetteville, 400 members of the community gathered for a prayer walk honoring Charlie Kirk. Kirk was a man whose message of faith, freedom, and unity has resonated across the country since his untimely death on September 10th.
This event on Sept. 21 brought together Fayetteville and Cumberland County residents, city, county, and state leaders, clergy, and free speech advocates from diverse backgrounds. They were all united by a common cause and a commitment to peace, respectful dialogue, a love for humanity, and God.
As the prayer walk proceeded solemnly from the Cumberland County courthouse to Festival Park, the peaceful march culminated with a brief but inspirational program by local community leaders.
Semone Pemberton, Cumberland County Commissioner Henry Tyson and State Representative Diane Wheatley eloquently reminded us of the significance of Charlie Kirk's death and shared inspirational messages about God, family, and the constant need for respectful, empathetic dialogue between all people.
The program ended in a prayer led by Reverend Archie Barringer and heartfelt closing sentiments, which encouraged attendees to carry the spirit of Charlie Kirk back to their homes and communities.
I was deeply moved by the unity, conviction, and compassion shown by everyone who participated. They came with open hearts and shared beliefs in God and the power of prayer, and the dignity and worth of all humanity.
Thank you for reading the Up & Coming Weekly community newspaper.
—Bill Bowman, Publisher

Festival Park, Sept. 21, 2025
Today, we honored Charlie Kirk—not just the man, but the message he carried. A message rooted in faith, freedom, and the unwavering belief that every voice matters. Charlie stood for truth, respectful dialogue, and the idea that love for humanity begins with listening, understanding, and courage.
What we experienced together was more than a tribute. It was a living example of peace, respect, and love. And now, as we return to our homes and communities, I encourage everyone to carry that same spirit forward.
Let the peace you felt today walk with you. Let the respect you showed for Charlie Kirk echo in your conversations. And let the love you shared be the light that guides your actions.
I want to extend my heartfelt thanks to the City of Fayetteville and Cumberland County, the Fayetteville Police Department, for ensuring our safety, and to Laura Mussler and the dozens of local freedom and free speech advocates who made this tribute possible. Their commitment to God and community made today truly special.
Let this moment ripple outward. Let it inspire others. Let it remind us that freedom of speech, thought, and faith are not just ideals—they are responsibilities. And when we honor them with grace and humility, we reflect the very best of what Charlie represented.
I want to extend my heartfelt thanks to the City of Fayetteville and Cumberland County, the Fayetteville Police Department, for ensuring our safety, and to the dozens of local freedom and free speech advocates who made this tribute possible. Your commitment to community and conscience made today truly special.
Depart in peace. Go with purpose. And go knowing that what we shared here today matters—to our children, to our neighbors, and to the future we’re all shaping together.
May God bless you all. And, God bless America.

Publisher's Pen: Lasting legacies: Honoring three pillars of Fayetteville’s business and community spirit

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Tuesday, 16 September 2025

Written by Bill Bowman

The loss of Bill Hurley—with his vision, sense of humor, and passion for the City of Fayetteville—was a tremendous blow to our progressive community. The memorial and designation of Hurley Plaza at the gateway to Segra Stadium is a fitting tribute to his legacy.
However, the passing of two other significant members of our community, Don Price and Bob Smith, within the span of a week, has left many of us shocked and deeply saddened. We find ourselves asking: Who will replace them? Who can replace them?
In their own unique ways, these three gentlemen were icons in Fayetteville. I will always be grateful for having known them, worked with them, done business with them, and most of all, called them my friends.
Fayetteville is a city built on service, vision, and heart—and few individuals have embodied those virtues more profoundly than these three passionate entrepreneurs: Bill Hurley of Hurley Insurance, Bob Smith of Copiers Plus, and Don Price of LaFayette Ford.
Faith, Family, and Service
These men were far more than successful businessmen. They were God-fearing men, devoted husbands, fathers, and grandfathers. They were active community leaders, faithful stewards of their values, and tireless champions for the people of Fayetteville, Fort Bragg, and all of Cumberland County.
Each built and nurtured locally owned businesses rooted in integrity, excellence, and genuine human connection. Their faith guided their decisions, their families inspired their purpose, and our entire community benefited from their unwavering love and commitment.
Bill Hurley
Bill built a thriving business and legacy career with Nationwide Insurance Company. He offered more than policies—he offered peace of mind and friendship. His reputation for honesty and compassion made him a cornerstone of Fayetteville’s business landscape. Always respectful and never without a smile, Bill’s legacy is now proudly carried on by his sons, Mark, Brad, and Todd.
Bob Smith
Bob, founder and owner of Copiers Plus, revolutionized how local businesses operate with his philosophy of putting people before profit. His gentle nature, tireless work ethic, and dedication to customer care earned him respect throughout the industry and across every community he touched.
Bob loved Fayetteville, supported it, and served it. He wasn’t afraid to take chances or embrace the endless wave of technological innovation in his field. He placed complete trust in those he hired and mentored. Like Bill, Bob groomed family members to carry on the Copiers Plus legacy—where the “Plus” truly stands for service.
Personal note: I’ve used Copiers Plus equipment since the very first day I opened my newspaper business nearly thirty years ago. And for decades, like clockwork, 50 Cape Fear Kiwanis Club pancake tickets would mysteriously appear on my desk each year in my absence. Go figure—no one could turn him down
Don Price
Don, owner of LaFayette Ford, was a visionary businessman filled with kindness, empathy, and a deep love for Cumberland County and humanity as a whole.
Like many residents, I bought my first Fayetteville vehicle from Don back in the seventies.
Twenty years later, I purchased my first Up & Coming Weekly delivery vehicle from him—without ever stepping foot on the lot. I called the dealership, told them what I needed, and they delivered it to my front door. Sold! Trust and honesty—that’s how business used to be done.
Year after year, I watched Don’s success grow as LaFayette Ford became a symbol of integrity, reliability, and community leadership. His support extended to Fort Bragg, the Chamber of Commerce, the Fayetteville Kiwanis Club, and countless other local initiatives.
Like Bill and Bob, Don’s legacy will be carried on by his wife, Karen, and their children, Tim and Kim.
In all three families, the phrase inspired by Ralph Waldo Emerson rings true: “The apple never falls far from the tree.”
A Community Forever Changed
Together, these three men spent decades lending their time, talents, and resources to make Fayetteville and Cumberland County a better place to live, work, and play.
From civic clubs like Kiwanis to youth programs, military family support, education, infrastructure, and nonprofit organizations—their fingerprints are on everything that represents progress in our community.
They didn’t just talk about change—they made it happen. They didn’t just build businesses—they built bridges between people, organizations, and neighborhoods. Their impact is permanent.
The legacies of the Hurleys, Smiths, and Prices have shaped a Fayetteville that is more united, more compassionate, and more forward-looking.
Like I said: Who will replace them? Who can replace them?
Thank you for reading Up & Coming Weekly.